HSFO defies the green tide

Spanish Market: Biofuels, Fertilizers, Natural gas, Oil products
08/05/25

High-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), once seen as a fading relic, is proving remarkably resilient (see table) despite the maritime sector's push toward decarbonization.

The fuel remains economically attractive thanks to persistent scrubber investments and regulatory frameworks that fail to fully penalize its use.

Under the EU notation, HSFO and very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) are assigned the same calorific and greenhouse gas emission values. This equivalence means that ships fitted with scrubbers — systems that strip out sulphur oxides — face no additional penalties for choosing HSFO over VLSFO. As a result, greenhouse gas fees under FuelEU Maritime and the EU emissions trading system (ETS) offer no disincentive for scrubber users to stick with cheaper HSFO.

In March 2025, the VLSFO-HSFO spread in Singapore narrowed to just $44/t, the lowest since the IMO 2020 sulphur cap took effect. At that level, a scrubber on a capesize bulker pays for itself in under two years. When the spread averaged $122/t in 2024, the payback period was about eight months.

Even in regulated markets like Europe, economics favor HSFO. Under the EU ETS, ships operating in, out of or between EU ports must pay for 70pc of their CO2 emissions in 2025. In Rotterdam, bunker prices including ETS surcharges still favor HSFO: $575/t for HSFO, $605/t for VLSFO, and $783/t for a B30 Used cooking oil methyl ester blend.

While biofuels, methanol and LNG are inching forward in market share, they remain cost-prohibitive. In the meantime, HSFO, with scrubber backing, continues to punch above its environmental weight.

By Stefka Wechsler

Selected ports marine fuel demand				t
	% Chg 1Q 25-1Q 24	1Q 2025 less 1Q 2024	1Q 2025	1Q 2024

Singapore
HSFO	1.0%	33,160.0	4,898,372.0	4,865,212.0
VLSFO/ULSFO	-13.0%	-1,005,951.0	6,829,667.0	7,835,618.0
MGO/MDO	-5.0%	-49,012.0	907,874.0	956,886.0
biofuel blends	187.0%	237,552.0	364,418.0	126,866.0
LNG	34.0%	25,935.0	101,856.0	75,921.0
Rotterdam
HSFO	1.0%	11,169.0	829,197.0	818,028.0
VLSFO/ULSFO	14.0%	118,670.0	976,249.0	857,579.0
MGO/MDO	3.0%	9,662.0	393,071.0	383,409.0
biofuel blends	-60.0%	-158,597.0	104,037.0	262,634.0
LNG	7.0%	7.0	104.0	97.0
Panama
HSFO	22.0%	65,266.0	362,388.0	297,122.0
VLSFO/ULSFO	25.0%	177,296.0	878,776.0	701,480.0
MGO/MDO	22.0%	27,097.0	150,980.0	123,883.0
— Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, Rotterdam Port Authority and Panama Canal Authority

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19/05/25

Egypt’s NCIC issues tender to sell fertilizers

London, 19 May (Argus) — Egyptian producer NCIC has issued a tender to sell various fertilizers for loading in June, closing on 24 May. NCIC is offering the following products: 30,000t of DAP – it sold 15,000t at $683-687/t fob in its last tender, probably for shipment to Europe 17,000t of TSP – it sold 15,000t at $535-540/t fob in its last tender. The cargo was probably sold at $573/t cfr Brazil 30,000t of 19pc SSP – it sold 30,000t at $255-280/t fob in its last tender, probably for shipment to Brazil 10,000t of CAN 27 – it sold 10,000t at $275-280/t fob in its last tender 5,000t of granular urea – it did not award the 5,000t offered in its last tender 1,500t of water-soluble SOP – it sold 1,500t at $600-605/t fob in its last tender NCIC's last sales tender offered May-loading fertilizers and closed on 15 April. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at [email protected] Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US LNG developers brush off tariff concerns

19/05/25

US LNG developers brush off tariff concerns

Houston, 19 May (Argus) — The US' biggest LNG developers have little worry over potential costs from President Donald Trump's 25pc steel and aluminum import tariffs as they prepare to spend billions building new export infrastructure. The top exporters of US LNG so far in 2025 — Cheniere, Venture Global and Sempra — are pushing ahead with plans for new terminals and expansions, dismissing concerns that Trump's protectionist trade policy could throttle projects that would help add more than 80mn t/yr (12bn cf/d) of capacity to the world's largest supplier of LNG by 2030. Sempra and Venture Global both estimate that just 1pc of capital expenditure for the first phases of their respective Port Arthur and CP2 projects is exposed to tariffs. Sempra plans to spend $13bn on the 13.5mn t/yr first phase of the Port Arthur, Texas, project. 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EU, UK to ‘work towards’ linking carbon markets

19/05/25

EU, UK to ‘work towards’ linking carbon markets

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German gasoil demand down on rising prices

19/05/25

German gasoil demand down on rising prices

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US House panel votes down Republican megabill

16/05/25

US House panel votes down Republican megabill

Washington, 16 May (Argus) — A key committee in the US House of Representatives voted today to reject a massive budget bill backed by President Donald Trump, as far-right conservatives demanded deeper cuts to clean energy tax credits and social spending programs. The House Budget Committee failed to pass the budget reconciliation bill in a 16-21 vote, with four House Freedom Caucus members — Ralph Norman (R-South Carolina), Chip Roy (R-Texas), Josh Brecheen (R-Oklahoma) and Andrew Clyde (R-Georgia) — voting no alongside Democrats. A fifth Republican voted no for procedural reasons. The failed vote will force Republicans to consider major changes to the bill before it comes up for a vote on the House floor as early as next week. Republican holdouts say the bill would fall short of their party's promises to cut the deficit, particularly because it would front-load increased spending and back-load cuts. The bill is set to add $3.3 trillion to the deficit, or $5.2 trillion if temporary provisions were permanent, according to estimates from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Some critics of the bill said the proposed cut of $560bn in clean energy tax credits is not enough, because the bill would retain some tax credits for new wind and solar projects. "A lot of these credits have been in existence for 30 or 40 years, and you talk about giveaways, we want to help those who really need help," Norman said ahead of his no vote. "That's the heart of this. Sadly, I'm a no until we get this ironed out." Negotiations will fall to House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), who can only lose three votes when the bill comes up for a vote by the full House. But stripping away more of the energy tax credits enacted in the Inflation Reduction Act could end up costing Johnson votes among moderates. More than a dozen Republicans on 14 May asked to pare back newly proposed restrictions on the remaining clean energy tax credits. Ahead of the failed vote, Trump had pushed Republicans to support what he calls the "Big Beautiful Bill". In a social media post, he said "Republicans MUST UNITE" in support of the bill and said the party did not need "GRANDSTANDERS". The failed vote has parallels to the struggles that Democrats had in 2021 before the implosion of their push to pass their sprawling "Build Back Better" bill, which was later revived as the Inflation Reduction Act. Republicans say they will work over the weekend on a compromise. The House Budget Committee has scheduled another hearing at 10pm on 18 May to attempt to vote again on the budget package, but any changes to the measure would occur later, through an amendment released before the bill comes up for a vote on the House floor. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at [email protected] Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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