Brazil's decision to raise anti-dumping (AD) duties on suspension-grade polyvinyl chloride (S-PVC) imports from the US to 43.7pc from 8.2pc is reshaping the country's trade dynamics.
The measure, expected to be published soon in the official gazette, is part of broader efforts to support domestic polymer producers while addressing concerns over pricing distortions in the market. Industry players and analysts anticipate a shift in sourcing strategies and cost structures as Brazil adjusts to the new tariff environment unleashed by US president Donald Trump.
Braskem, Brazil's leading PVC producer, told Argus on Thursday that it supports the government's move, arguing that artificially low-priced imports from the US have negatively impacted the national petrochemical sector. The company views the duty increase as a necessary correction to protect competitiveness, safeguard jobs and investments, and ensure supply chain integrity. By aligning with global anti-dumping frameworks, Brazil aims to prevent market distortions that could undermine domestic production, Braskem said.
Meanwhile, industry sources expect a price repositioning across different suppliers but remain uncertain about the extent of the adjustment. One market participant told Argus that the timing of the decision coincides with ongoing negotiations, meaning that June will likely be a transition period during which buyers and suppliers reassess their purchasing strategies.
Furthermore, the sharp increase in duties may force Brazilian importers to seek alternatives such as Egyptian, Mexican and Taiwanese suppliers, reshaping trade flows in the coming months. Another market participant stated that the measure is excessive, effectively blocking US-origin PVC from entering Brazil and creating supply challenges for buyers accustomed to sourcing from US producers.
In the meantime, financial analysts at Santander bank in Brazil estimate that the tariff hike could push the price of US PVC imports from to $1,187/t, a 26pc increase from $940/t in April. If domestic prices follow this upward trend, Brazilian producers could see significant revenue gains.
According to Santander, Unipar Carbocloro, the other PVC manufacturer in Brazil, stands to benefit from improved pricing dynamics, with projections indicating an 18pc boost in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda), translating to R$230mn ($40.7mn) in additional revenue. With Brazil becoming a more attractive sales destination, Unipar may shift export volumes from Argentina, where it also operates, to Brazil, leveraging cost advantages and high production utilization rates.
Brazil's foreign trade committee, Gecex, approved the AD duty increase during an extraordinary meeting on 27 May. The measure follows a broader trade policy change that raised overall polymer import taxes to 20pc in October 2024 from 12.6pc, reflecting growing pressure from domestic producers. Braskem and Unipar Carbocloro had petitioned the government to implement higher anti-dumping duties, citing unfair pricing practices by US suppliers. The government's response aligns with similar trade defense mechanisms implemented in other markets to counter competitive imbalances.
Despite previous efforts to limit imports, Brazil's PVC shipments rose 38pc to 548,573 metric tonnes in 2024 from the prior year. The increase underscores the country's strong reliance on foreign supplies, even as domestic producers push for greater market protection. The US remains one of the top suppliers to Brazil, alongside Colombia, Egypt, and Argentina, highlighting the significant role imports continue to play in meeting local demand.
