N EU HRC market anticipates price rise/import surge

Spanish Market: Metals
11/06/25

North European hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices are expected to increase later this year, as buyers move early to avoid anticipated supply-side constraints.

Europe's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) will increase the cost of imports from January 2026. There are unconfirmed reports that the commission will set the CBAM benchmark for blast furnace-based imports at 1.4t. If true, this would add nearly €53/t to the cost of importing HRC with a carbon intensity of 2.1t, assuming a carbon cost of €72.07/t.

The commission will also provide more clarity around its proposed melt-and-pour clause in the third quarter. Should this be imposed in the first half of 2026, it will increase the cost of importing cold-rolled coil (CRC) and hot-dip galvanised. Legal sources suggest that the commission could mandate payment of anti-dumping duties for those that continue to use Chinese substrate. For example, if a re-roller buys Chinese HRC, processes it into CRC and sells it in the EU, it may be liable for the dumping duties currently in place on Chinese HRC, the lowest of which is around 18.1pc.

This would not necessarily reduce EU imports of downstream products, and is hard to enforce, but could raise the floor price as re-rollers source more domestically.

There will also be changes made to the current steel safeguard, which lapses in June 2026. European steel association Eurofer wants the safeguard to be replaced as early as January 2026 to reduce import penetration, and given the risk of supposed trade diversion from the US where tariffs have now been increased to 50pc for most exporters. Eurofer has been outspoken in its demand for a 50pc cut in imports, to realign market share with historical norms. It is not clear if the commission will acquiesce to this request, but officials have already stated that the new measure will be stricter than the current mechanism.

However, some suggest a pre-emptive import surge — as traders race to clear customs before costs rise — could increase supply rapidly in a subdued demand environment. A number of traders have openly admitted to trying to import substantial quantities for fourth-quarter clearance to beat the CBAM and any other potential tariffs.

Whatever regulatory obstacles may appear, demand is still the major issue for the steel supply chain.

There is potential demand upside from German stimulus efforts, and should wider geopolitical uncertainty ease this year. EU industrial production has started to grow of late, after years of decline, and German manufacturing inventories and new orders are trending the right way too — stocks are falling from high levels, and new orders are contracting less than before.

But slower economic growth and rising trade uncertainty also pose downside demand risks — for example, automotive companies and their supply chains are currently grappling with production issues because of reduced Chinese rare earth exports. Should trade tension increase, there is a risk of further supply-side constraints impacting steel-using sectors.

By Colin Richardson

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18/06/25

Eurofer calls for 50pc quota tariff post safeguard

New York, 18 June (Argus) — European steel association Eurofer has asked the European Commission to implement an out-of-quota tariff of 50pc in its post safeguard measure, while reducing duty-free volumes by 50pc, Italian steelmaker Arvedi chief executive Mario Arvedi Caldonazzo told the Global Steel Dynamics Forum in New York late yesterday. "We need to adopt a strict and severe trade defence measure," Caldonazzo said, adding that discussions with the commission were ongoing, and that it would publish a proposal on the measures that would replace the safeguard in mid-July. Eurofer, of which Caldonazzo is vice-president, wants these measures to come into play in January 2026, earlier than the planned lapse of the current safeguard mechanism in June 2026. Imports have reached as much as 30pc of total supply on some products, at much lower prices than domestic production. "The commission is aware this is the move that will determine the future of the European industry," he said. Eurofer hopes the commission will make its proposal regarding a melt-and-pour clause in September-October, and that scrap will be recognised as a critical raw material. Caldonazzo said the EU exports 20mn t of scrap that is transformed into steel products then sold back to Europe, and that more material being retained could help mills increase scrap usage and reduce their carbon footprint. The EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) also needs to be extended downstream to address the risk of circumvention, and also that "resource shuffling" is addressed. This is where mills use a portion of greener production to sell into the EU at a lower payable tax, while retaining more carbon intensive sales into other markets. "Without these measures the future will be very sad," Caldonazzo said, adding that the EU could just end up importing and re-rolling semi-finished steel. Lourenco Goncalves, the outspoken head of Cleveland-Cliffs, said in another presentation that the EU would eliminate its carbon emissions by ceasing to produce steel. Talks over the Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum (GASA) should be restarted, building a free trade agreement between the US and EU, allowing both to expand trade on a duty and quota free basis, Caldonazzo said. This would be possible should the EU have similar trade defence measures to the US, such as a melt and pour. On the sidelines of the conference he told Argus there will be no recovery in the EU market this year, given the disparity between imports and domestic prices, and the very low level of demand. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at [email protected] Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's Lynas produces terbium oxide in Malaysia

18/06/25

Australia's Lynas produces terbium oxide in Malaysia

Sydney, 18 June (Argus) — Australian mineral producer Lynas Rare Earths has produced terbium oxide at its Malaysian rare earth plant, adding to its line of rare earth products, the firm announced today. The company produced the oxide using 1,500 t/yr heavy rare earth separation circuits it built in January-March. It previously used the circuits to produce separated dysprosium at the plant in May, becoming the first producer of separated heavy rare earths outside China. Lynas plans to eventually expand its rare earth product line to include dysprosium, terbium, and holmium concentrate, alongside unseparated samarium/europium/gadolinium and unseparated mixed heavy rare earths. Lynas supplies its Malaysian plant with rare earth feedstock from its Mount Weld mine and Kalgoorlie processing plant in Western Australia (WA). But it may expand its feedstock sources in the future. The company signed an initial agreement with Malaysian investment agency Menteri Besar in late May to buy mixed rare earth carbonates from developing Malaysian ionic clay deposits. It did not disclose supply volumes. Lynas' product line expansion comes soon after US and European automakers warned that rare earth export controls could lead to assembly line shutdowns. Lynas is developing a rare earth production plant in the US with the same capabilities as its Malaysian plant. Lynas plans to produce 2,500-3,000 t/yr of heavy rare earth products and 5,000 t/yr of light rare earth products at the site when it opens. The US government helped fund the project in 2019 through a presidential directive under the Defence Production Act . By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at [email protected] Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Supreme Court asked to rule on tariffs

17/06/25

US Supreme Court asked to rule on tariffs

Washington, 17 June (Argus) — Plaintiffs in one of the legal cases challenging President Donald Trump's authority to impose tariffs are asking the Supreme Court to hear their arguments even before US federal appeals courts rule on their petition. The legal case brought by the plaintiffs — toy companies Learning Resources and hand2hand — resulted in a ruling by the US District Court for the District of Columbia in late May that Trump did not have the authority to impose tariffs by citing a 1978 law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). That case is currently on appeal at the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit. The plaintiffs today urged the Supreme Court to take the case and schedule oral arguments at the start of its fall term in October, or possibly in a special September sitting. The plaintiffs argued the Supreme Court will eventually have to rule on the case given the unprecedented use of IEEPA by the Trump White House to impose tariffs, so special consideration should be given to the case even before appeals courts rule on it. The Supreme Court is under no obligation to fast-track the case. The schedule for legal challenges to Trump's authority is clashing with his claims to be negotiating multiple deals with foreign trade partners. Trump cited the IEEPA to impose, then rescind, tariffs of 10-25pc on energy and other imports from Canada and Mexico in February-March. He used the same law to impose 20pc tariffs on China in February-March, and to impose 10pc tariffs on nearly every US trading partner in April. The US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit has stayed the toy companies' case until the resolution of a separate, broader legal challenge to Trump's tariff authority. In that case, the US Court of International Trade ruled in late May that Trump's use of IEEPA was illegal and ordered the administration to remove all tariffs it imposed under that rubric and to refund all import duties it collected. The trade court's ruling is under review at the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which scheduled an oral argument on 31 July to hear from plaintiffs — a group of US companies and several US states — and from the Trump administration. The trade court's ruling in late May was unexpected, as it "actually ruled on the merits of the case, as opposed to just granting or denying an injunction," according to Alec Phillips, chief political economist with investment bank Goldman Sachs' research arm. "The question now is, will the Federal Circuit uphold the ruling, and will ultimately the Supreme Court uphold the ruling?" The Trump administration argued that the legal challenges to its tariff authority could undermine its ability to negotiate with foreign trade partners. The administration has so far produced two limited trade agreements, with the UK and China, despite promising in early April to unveil "90 deals in 90 days". Trump on Monday described ongoing trade negotiations as an easy process. "We're dealing with really, if you think about it, probably 175 countries, and most of them can just be sent a letter saying, 'It'll be an honor to trade with you, and here's what you're going to have to pay to do'", Trump said. But on the same day he pushed back on calls from Canada and the EU to negotiate trade deals, arguing that their approach is too complex. "You get too complex on the deals and they never get done," Trump said. The legal challenges to Trump's authority under IEEPA will not affect the tariffs he imposed on foreign steel, aluminum, cars and auto parts. US trade statistics point to a significant tariff burden in place in April, the latest month for which data are available.The effective US tariff rate on all imports — the amount of duties collected divided by the total value of imports — rose to 7.1pc in April from 2.4pc in January. Trump has dismissed concerns about the impact of tariffs on consumer prices, noting on Monday that "we're making a lot of money. You know, we took in $88bn in tariffs." Treasury Department revenue data show that the US has collected $98bn in customs revenue for the year through 13 June, up from $63bn in the same period last year. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at [email protected] Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Chevron latest E&P to join the US lithium hunt

17/06/25

Chevron latest E&P to join the US lithium hunt

New York, 17 June (Argus) — Chevron has joined the ranks of some of the world's biggest oil producers in taking initial steps to explore for lithium, a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries. The second-biggest US oil major said it has acquired about 125,000 net acres in northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas, covering parts of the Smackover formation — a region that has already drawn interest from rivals including ExxonMobil and Equinor for the high lithium content in its briny groundwater. Oil companies are seeking to leverage existing skillsets to deploy advanced methods to extract lithium from brine water — which is regularly produced along with oil and natural gas — at the subsurface. The goal is to produce lithium at lower cost and with a smaller environmental footprint than traditional hard rock mining techniques or those that require massive evaporation ponds and more freshwater resources. "Establishing domestic and resilient lithium supply chains is essential not only to maintaining US energy leadership but also to meeting the growing demand from customers," said Jeff Gustavson, president of Chevron New Energies. "This opportunity builds on many of Chevron's strengths including subsurface resource development." Chevron acquired the two leasehold acreage positions from TerraVolta Resources, whose investor is an affiliate of the Energy & Minerals Group, and East Texas Natural Resources. Financial details of the deals were not disclosed. The announcement follows growing interest in the region as oil companies seek to navigate the demands of the energy transition. Smackover Lithium, a joint venture between Standard Lithium and Equinor, aims to produce 22,500 t/yr of battery-grade lithium carbonate from the Southwest Arkansas Project (SWA) by 2028. In May, the Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission approved a 2.5pc quarterly gross royalty for the Reynolds Unit in Phase I of SWA, located in Lafayette and Columbia counties —setting a precedent for similar projects statewide. In November 2024, ExxonMobil signed a deal to supply up to 100,000 t of lithium carbonate to South Korea's LG Chem , sourcing the feedstock from the Smackover Formation. "By early next decade, big oil and big mining will replace the likes of [major US-based lithium producer] Albemarle at the top of the lithium world," said independent analyst Joe Lowry, host of the Global Lithium podcast. By Stephen Cunningham and Carol Luk Send comments and request more information at [email protected] Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Aerospace industry opposes US section 232 measures

17/06/25

Aerospace industry opposes US section 232 measures

London, 17 June (Argus) — Major US-based original equipment manufacturers (OEM) have voiced opposition to a section 232 national security investigation into imports of commercial aircraft, jet engines and associated components, with most calling on the commerce department to commit to a tariff-free regime. The probe, launched on 1 May, elicited input from 205 stakeholders — ranging from individuals to leading aerospace companies — during a three-week comment period. The US is host to the largest aerospace and defence (A&D) industry in the world, and has maintained a positive trade surplus for over 70 years, according to the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA). The US exported $135.9bn worth of A&D goods in 2023, with a positive trade balance of $74.5bn, AIA data show. Respondents attributed this surplus to the World Trade Organization's 1979 Agreement on Trade in Civil Aircraft, which covers trade in civil aircraft, engines and parts between 33 signatory countries including the US, EU, UK, Canada and Japan. Domestic OEMs warn of supply chain disruption Boeing noted that while it relies heavily on domestic sources for its supply chain, around 75pc of its revenue comes from overseas customers, so "foreign market access is critical to Boeing's competitiveness". US carriers will account for only 18pc of the nearly 44,000 new aircraft projected to be built over the next 20 years to meet growing air travel demand, it added. Boeing emphasised the need for diverse global supply chains, adding that quality and regulatory constraints make rapid onshoring of manufacturing capacity a challenge. The critical nature of aviation requires articles to be subject to stringent safety and quality standards. "It may take up to 10 years to establish a new domestic supplier and ensure they meet necessary, rigorous safety certifications," the AIA said. High standards make any short-term disruption to a suppliers' operations particularly damaging. "The loss of one supplier can take many years to rectify," Boeing's head of government, global public policy and corporate strategy Jeff Shockey wrote. "There are often no viable alternative suppliers that can quickly meet the required certification standards, and compromises on those standards — many of which are grounded in aviation safety — are not an option." Kansas-based fuselage manufacturer Spirit AeroSystems urged the commerce department to prevent the implementation of import tariffs because higher duties would increase operating costs, upend long-term supply negotiations and add financial burdens to the industry. The firm highlighted the importance of its UK operations in supporting major aircraft programmes, and said any trade restrictions on that country would create risk for its production schedules. Virginia-based engine maker RTX cautioned that any tariffs levied under section 232 could threaten investment in its domestic manufacturing operations. This includes more than $1bn earmarked for its Asheville facility in North Carolina to expand production capacity of engine blades and vanes, and to add foundry operations for castings in the next few years. RTX warned that any undue pressure on its US supply network — comprising 20,000 companies — could result in small businesses, which are still recovering from Covid-19, to "close their doors". That would have a cascading effect on the wider multi-tiered supply chain, RTX said. RTX subsidiary Pratt & Whitney's PW1100G-JM geared turbofan engine helps power Airbus' A320neo family. EU, UK stress ties with US partners, facilities The investigation drew responses from several European and UK OEMs that have significant ties to US aerospace supply chains. Europe-based Airbus, through its US subsidiary, stressed that commercial aircraft manufacturing depends on a global supply chain and onshoring that entirely to any single country is neither realistic nor sensible. Airbus' A320 aircraft has 340,000 unique parts, each requiring years of certification. Airbus operates a final assembly line for its A320 and A220 jets in Mobile, Alabama, and has already said tariffs have hit assemblies imported to this operation . French engine manufacturer Safran pointed out that CFM International — its joint venture with GE Aerospace — produces the LEAP engine, which exclusively powers Boeing's 737 MAX aircraft. Safran also supplies the low-pressure compressor module to GE Aerospace for its GEnx engine fitted to Boeing's 787 Dreamliner. Boeing's alternative engine for the 787 is the Trent 1000 supplied by UK manufacturer Rolls-Royce, which commented that 60pc of aircraft with its engines are based in the US. It further highlighted the negative effect that tariffs have already had on maintenance, repair and overhaul operations, leading customers to delay repair work or seek unapproved alternatives. Ti forgings characterise broader tariff risks Aerospace parts often rely on unique metals, alloys, composites, forgings and castings that have specific properties, Boeing wrote. Machinery to manufacture these items is purpose-built and limited in capacity. Large structural forgings require unique forging presses capable of exceeding 30,000t hydraulic force, located in the US, Russia, China, France, Japan and Austria. Austrian forger Voestalpine Bohler Aerospace underlined that transatlantic reciprocity extends from finished aircraft and engines down to approved raw materials such as titanium and nickel-based alloys. "The industry cannot rapidly replace suppliers without creating significant cost overruns, supply chain bottlenecks, and safety risks," Voestalpine wrote. Pennsylvania-based Perryman, a key producer of titanium ingot and mill products, said continued access to global suppliers and aerospace-grade raw materials is crucial to avoid disruptions to domestic manufacturing. Perryman also argued that the interconnected nature of the titanium and aviation industries requires balanced trade solutions. The US relies solely on imports of titanium sponge, a necessary input for ingot melting, while also drawing approximately 50pc of its scrap needs from overseas. By Samuel Wood and Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at [email protected] Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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